one year on
Oracle shares surge 36% to best day since 1992 as $455 billion backlog signals AI cloud boom
Remaining performance obligations jump 359% as the company signs four multibillion-dollar contracts, one tied to OpenAI's agreement to develop 4.5 gigawatts of U.S. data center capacity, sending the stock to its biggest single-day gain since 1992 and briefly making Larry Ellison the world's richest person.
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Oracle shares rocketed 36% higher Wednesday — their best day since 1992, adding roughly $244 billion in market value — after the database giant reported a staggering $455 billion in remaining performance obligations — backlog of contracted revenue — up 359% from a year ago, driven by a handful of enormous cloud contracts tied to the AI buildout.
The company’s fiscal first-quarter results narrowly missed Wall Street estimates, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.47 on $14.93 billion in revenue versus the $1.48 and $15.04 billion analysts expected. But investors fixed on the forward-looking backlog, which CEO Safra Catz said included four multibillion-dollar agreements with three customers. Press reports tie one of those to OpenAI, which had disclosed a deal with Oracle to develop 4.5 gigawatts of U.S. data center capacity. OpenAI said it signed an agreement with Oracle to develop 4.5 gigawatts of U.S. data center capacity. The rally briefly made co-founder and chairman Larry Ellison the world’s richest person, passing Elon Musk on Bloomberg’s billionaires index. Oracle projected cloud infrastructure revenue will hit $18 billion this fiscal year, up from about $10 billion, and balloon to $144 billion by fiscal 2030. Catz told analysts the company will spend roughly $35 billion in capital expenditures this year, up 65%.
The rally reignites the AI-bubble debate: is this a landmark validation of the data-center buildout, or a warning sign of frothy expectations? Oracle’s guidance implies it will capture a share of AI cloud spend that even some bulls — like Evercore’s Kirk Materne, who had modeled $108 billion for fiscal 2029 — hadn’t anticipated. The answer may determine whether today’s rally is a signal of enduring value or a peak in the cycle.
The record
An Evercore analyst with a buy rating on Oracle, said he had anticipated $108 billion in fiscal 2029 cloud infrastructure revenue, below the company's projection of $114 billion.
Said on the earnings call that capital expenditures for the new fiscal year will be around $35 billion, representing 65% growth, and characterized Oracle's approach as 'asset-pretty-light' compared to competitors who 'like to own buildings.'
One year later — open only if you can handle spoilers
The euphoria cooled fast: Oracle slid about 6% the very next session as analysts flagged that most of the $455 billion backlog rested on a single, unprofitable customer. The OpenAI arrangement was confirmed as a roughly $300 billion, five-year deal beginning in 2027, and through 2026 Oracle raised tens of billions in debt to build the capacity — including a ~$50 billion financing plan — keeping AI-bubble and concentration worries alive even as its Stargate data center in Abilene, Texas came online. Ellison's stint atop the wealth rankings was brief, but Oracle's pivot to AI infrastructure had become one of the defining trades of the cycle.
Filed
Compiled and edited by Adam Allcock.
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